It’s being said on every channel and media network that we’ll now get a “softer” Brexit. Theresa May took a gamble, to increase her majority and failed. That means the people have told her they don’t want her type of “extreme Tory Brexit” as described by Nicola Sturgeon and the like.
The problem is, the numbers don’t appear to support that.
As I write this, there’s a delay on the vote count for Kensington and Chelsea. But either way it’s going to be either a Labour or Conservative seat. That means it’s another MP elected by a party that explicitly campaigned on a promise to deliver Brexit. You could argue that the Tories wanted a “harder” (cleaner?) Brexit, and the Labour Party, sort of, well, I guess they didn’t really spell it out did they? Which was clever, with hindsight, making them all things to all people. Either way, it’s another MP in the Brexit column.
If you add up the number of MPs elected from parties who are essentially still pro-remain (and by that I use the generous version of remain to mean those who accept Brexit will happen, but want it to be so light as to be insignificant), and assuming that the one independent/other elected who I’ll just assume is a remainer because I don’t know, you end up with 60. That number might be filled with some who personally really support Brexit, but I’m just going on the basis of party line rather than what happens to be in each individual’s heart.
Now add up the parties who were overtly pro-leave. That’s Labour, Conservative and the DUP. 590 MPs. Again, some of those individual MPs were opposed to leave, and vocally so. But they are a minority in every case, and their parties were clear.
So ten times as many MPs were elected on a party platform to support Brexit than not.
We may very well get a less clean Brexit as a result of this election. In fact, that’s likely. And I’m not suggesting that this is either right or wrong. It’s just interesting to see what the numbers – so far – appear to be telling us.